Olympic Curling

Woody0 · Feb 10, 2006

Hope to get the chance to see some more curling in the next 2 weeks.

Pinnacle has a real smorgasbord of offerings at low maximums. I really like Canada round robin wins over 7.5, currently at +107. I think it opened today at +110 and my $100 pushed it down to +107. In the December Canadian trials the Gushue team came through the round robin with an 8-1 record against the far tougher Canadian competition. Frankly I think only Sweden has a chance, on a good day, of beating this team and look for an 8-1 or 9-0 result provided something disastrous does not occur.

HPark1 · Feb 10, 2006

I'm not sure I agree Gushue will be this dominant. I actually took Germany to cover 2.5 vs. Canada in their first match. I've resolved to believe Germany will hold the hammer as well making this line too good to pass up. After Canada and Sweden I think the Norwegians and Germans are the next best.

Interesting cbc's website noted Japan's women as a possible darkhorse. I took a shot at O1.5 wins for a plus price which seems very generous. Consequently took the Japanese to cover the 1.5 vs. Russia in their first match. Russia appears to be the true worst team in the competition. Also took the US women to cover 2.5 vs. the Canadians. US have been playing well leading up to the Olympics while Canada certainly hasn't. If the US pulls the outright upset its interesting to note they will play the "darkhorse" Japanese next. Massive 14.4-1 available for Japan there. I'm mulling over the idea of playing Sweden to win gold, price of only +150 or so but they appear to be true class.

Lets get some money out of this funny sport.

gl

Woody0 · Feb 11, 2006

HPark1 said:
I'm not sure I agree Gushue will be this dominant.

I think they will either be this dominant or be a complete blowout and favour the former. I don't see them middling along.
The team chemistry seemed to work well at the trials and hopefully it won't break down.

GL with the Germany play. I don't like handicaps because they are vulnerable to big final ends.

coutts99 · Feb 13, 2006

Russia went 7-5 at last year's women's world championship and qualified for a tie breaker there.They finished 4th at 2004 european championships.

HPark1 · Feb 13, 2006

yeah I've being looking around and don't even understand why the cbc analyst believes Japan could surprise. Bought that matchup back. Even went as far as putting a small piece on Russia O1.5.

coutts99 any ideas early on? Canada +100 not to win the men's seems nice. I can't believe they have over a 50% chance of winning. Plus Gushue was moaning about the ice the other day...

coutts99 · Feb 13, 2006

I already bet the field at even at 5imes to win over Canada. The ice is fast and straight. I heard Gushue bitching already about the ice. Where can you find out who has last rock advantage well in advance of each game.

HPark1 · Feb 13, 2006

damn you coutts, off the board now.

coutts99 said:
Where can you find out who has last rock advantage well in advance of each game.

Books probably know but its possible they don't.

Woody0 · Feb 13, 2006

coutts99 said:
Where can you find out who has last rock advantage well in advance of each game.

That's a good question. So far the men's has been first listed team once and second listed team 3 times! Let you know if I find out.

Looking at the shooting percentages wouldn't think the ice is fast and straight. Haven't seen any curling yet, maybe today.

coutts99 · Feb 13, 2006

Tomorrow at 3:00 am ESt

Norway +1.5 +120 over Sweden at pinnacle 100 to win 120

Norway has last rock advantage to start the game.Norway and Sweden have split their last 6 matches.

coutts99 · Feb 14, 2006

women's curling at 1:00 pm ESt

russia +4.5 +110 over Canada

These teams met last in the 2005 world's and Canada won a squeeker 9-8.

HPark1 · Feb 14, 2006

nice call on Norway, bit surprised how lopsided it was. Played Russia last night myself. Also tried the Swiss ladies +1.5 over Norway today.

Italy, Japan and the US on the women's side look good for tomorrow imo. I rate Italy and Russia as equals but Italy has the hammer and a home crowd. Similar reasoning for US/Norway. For Japan I'm thinking any handicap over 4 when a team has the hammer seems a bit much. Japan has had some competitive matches against top teams.

gl

Woody0 · Feb 14, 2006

Nice call on Norway.

Finally got to see some curling this morning. USA/New Zealand which fortunately was a short game then Canada/Sweden. Sweden were given the game. Ahead 7-5 in the 10th end, Gushue on his last rock had a single Swedish rock in the rings to remove with only one partial guard and he was probably too nonchalant with an easy shot and was either too heavy or too thin and failed to remove it giving Sweden an easy 2 to tie. Then with the hammer in the extra end he failed to outdraw the Swedish rock in the 4'.

It was heart breaking because Canada was outplaying the Swedes with good stategic curling, then a few bad shots at the end throws it away. Now they need to go undefeated for my over 7.5 wins but they are capable of doing so.

wilheim · Feb 14, 2006

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TANG · Feb 14, 2006

coutts99 said:
women's curling at 1:00 pm ESt

russia +4.5 +110 over Canada

These teams met last in the 2005 world's and Canada won a squeeker 9-8.

CANADA BETTER NOT STEAL 3 IN THE 9TH HUGE SHOT BY RUSSIA JUST NOW

HPark1 · Feb 14, 2006

my mistake Wilheim, will remember for the future.

Russia played real well and had some realistic chances in the 9th and 10th to possibly upset Canada. Time running out on their final stone in the 10th could have rushed them to hit a so-so shot to allow Canada to draw to the button for a fairly easy shot. Anyways...

Japan with a shocker over US, maybe that CBC analyst was onto something. Good idea to take that 4.5 against Norway tomorrow before the juice increases. >>Just as I was writing this I noticed the line has already plummeted. Juice from +100 to almost -160. Hmm still would rather take Japan than Norway.

On the men's side I'll take a shot with GB +1.5, +155. GB is capable enough especially with the hammer.

gl

Labeeb · Feb 14, 2006

I've just been tailing along for the ride. Perhaps one of you Canadians can explain the concept of "the hammer" to me. I finally am getting to watch it now on CNBC, but haven't heard this mentioned yet.

Labeeb · Feb 14, 2006

OK, in doing a little research, the hammer appears to be the last stone in an end. The hammer will go to the team not scoring, allowing them to go last. Strategy mentioned of trying to not score at all as opposed to 1 point in order to maintain the hammer. How often do you see teams employing this strategy?

HPark1 · Feb 14, 2006

yep hammer is the same as last rock advantage.

With the hammer you are trying to score 2+ or blanking the end (0-0) to keep the hammer. In almost all cirumstances you will prefer a blank then scoring one. Allowing only one without the hammer is the ideal situation although stealing (scoring without the hammer) is the best. Of course game situation can effect the decision making.

Just noticed Russia has been hit due to their solid perfomances today. I definately think Italy +1.5, -110 holds the value now. Overeaction to short term results I'd say.

coutts99 · Feb 14, 2006

Men's curling tomorrow at 3:00 am Est

norway +1.5 -135 over Sweden 135 to win 100

Sweden off huge win over canada let down time--the norwegians have last rock and have split their last 4 withsweden with one of those losses being by 1 point.

Doug · Feb 15, 2006

coutts99 said:
Men's curling tomorrow at 3:00 am Est

norway +1.5 -135 over Sweden 135 to win 100

Sweden off huge win over canada let down time--the norwegians have last rock and have split their last 4 withsweden with one of those losses being by 1 point.

I was going to follow you guys on this ( I'm 1-0 lifetime in Curling), but my instincts tell me value is lost at -155. I know too little about the sport ( game ? ) to take that line.

It's kind of boring to watch ( to a newcomer), I get the general concept. The guy throwing the stone has skill ( something like a billiards pro ? ), the scraper ( sweeper ? ) guys seem to have less to do with it, if the throw is real bad they can't influence the way that rock thing moves enough to save it.

To a casual observer the guy throwing the stone is the key, looks like the young uns are the scraper guys and the old pro throws it.

Not sure where they even do this in USA ( Minn. ?), I know Canadians do this. Seems like I've read they do this, then get drunk together, maybe it's like bowling leagues in US ?

I'll follow some guys in sports I don't know enough about, but back off when I can't get the line.

I'm sure it's very difficult and strategic and most Americans would dismiss it as shuffleboard on ice, just can't see it catching on in the States.

Actually looks pretty cool, elements of billiards, hockey, shuffleboard, bowling.